Demographics of inceldom

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This article discusses the demographics of inceldom. It sheds light onto the question how many incels exist in modern societies and provides evidence that the rate of male incels is overall higher, often twice as high than female incels. The body of evidence strongly suggests that inceldom is not a marginal phenomenon.

Economic and education status[edit | edit source]

The economic background of those experiencing inceldom (involuntary celibacy) appears to be very diverse. A survey from the incel forum reports 59% middle class, 33.8% lower class, and 7.2% upper class (N = 550).[1] Further, 50% had a high school degree (or are in high schooll), 38.8% college and 11.2% graduate school.[2] These data are not necessarily representative of incels overall. Data from Germany suggest that university students are possibly around twice as likely to never have had sex compared to others of similar age, and further supports the notion that incels have diverse socioeconomic backgrounds.

Race[edit | edit source]

Although involuntary celibates are often stereotyped as white, polls and surveys suggest otherwise. This poll from braincels shows that whites constitute only 28% of that forums population, with the largest racial demographic being currycel. The largest poll by showed that only 50% of its members were white[3], which is quite small for a Western web forum. Social Anxiety Support by comparison is about 99% white.

According to a peer-reviewed study, the stereotype that is mostly white is incorrect. The paper stated, "It is impossible to say whether the majority of users are white men, but our data implies that this may be less true than expected". "However, there is one major and important difference to other […] communities: The community is more heterogeneous than other […] communities, because users are not united by a common goal, but by a feature that its individuals share, i.e., not being able to engage in social and/or sexual contacts." "There is no definite evidence that users are predominantly white, contrary to what is often reported about incels,"[4]

High school inceldom in the U.S.[edit | edit source]

Teenage sexual activity in the U.S. has declined a lot in the past decades and the majority of high-school graduates and by 2019 the majority of graduates has possibly never dated.[5] Non-white students are affected the most, but they also have had the highest and earliest sexual activity and there is no evidence of major racial discrimination (it has declined by 76% for Blacks, 72% for Hispanics and 68% for Whites). The fact that ever fewer young males have regular sex at all, in combination with hypersexualized media, porn and the few males who have sex bragging about it, might cause the misconception among many incels that few men hoard all the women. In truth, females also have substantially less sex.

Adult inceldom in the U.S.[edit | edit source]

Rise in sexlessness and singledom[edit | edit source]

Virginity of both sexes by age (2006-2008) based on NSFG data (pdf) in the table below (each age group has an N of ~10,000). The drop for males at 35 may be betabuxx or men seeing prostitutes.
Virginity, by sex (NSFG 2006-2008)
Age % female virgins % male virgins M:F sex ratio
15–17 60.3 52.4 0.9
18–19 29.7 24.1 0.8
20–24 12.3 14.3 1.1
25–29 3.4 3.8 1.1
30–34 1.9 3.1 1.6
35–39 0.9 1.3 1.4
40–44 0.3 1.2 4.0

Sexless men between 18 and 30 are on the rise according to the Washington Post using data from the U.S. nationally representative General Social Survey (GSS).[6] 28% of men did not have sex in the past year. GSS data also shows that among today's 18 to 34 year olds, 51% have no stable partner, up from 35% in 1986.[7] Further, roughly 30% of millennials are often or always lonely and 22% have no friends which likely overlaps inceldom because a sex partner would count as companionship or a friend.

The 95% confidence interval for men who did not have sex in the past year aged 18-30 is 20%-34% (N = 137). Combining data from 2016 and 2018, one finds an estimate of 24% (N = 311, 95% CI: 19%, 29%). A study by Poortman and Liebroer found that only roughly 4% of singles preferred their singlehood over being in a relationship.[8] Further, only 1% of the population self-identify as asexual.[9] Provided that sex is regarded as the most satisfying and joyous experience, it seems implausible that many would voluntarily forgo sex. Hence, accounting for volcels, the percentage of incels among millennials is likely a bit less than the sexless, so likely roughly between 15% and 30%,[10] likely a bit higher as of 2019. With 57 million millennial males, this amounts to 8-17 million male millennial incels, and 2-3 as many in an unstable or no relationship, pointing to a substantial amount of sexually frustrated males.

More sexless men than women[edit | edit source]

In the GSS survey 2018, only 18% of millennial women had no sex in the past year compared to 28% of millennial men,[11] but this difference is not statistically significant, meaning it could be coincidental. However, combining survey years 2016 and 2018 for female millennials, one finds 17% of women are sexless (N = 337, 95% CI: 13%, 21%), which is significantly different from men's figure for these years of 24% (X² = 4.6, p = 0.03). Including year 2014, it becomes more significant (X² = 6.3, p = 0.01, 21% M vs 15% W). What is worse, women are known to downplay their sexual past, so the number of sexless women is possibly in truth lower.[12] Including older populations, this difference vanishes somewhat as older men remarry more often, leaving behind single mothers.[13] This difference among the young is likely mainly due to women getting into relationships earlier, in their prime years, dating older men, and possibly though less likely due to open relationships, polyamory, serial monogamy, harems, online dating and other forms of de facto polygamy, i.e. Chads getting more of the pie. Regardless of the cause, this undeniably means men's sexual needs are less likely met in this age bracket.

The IFS found there is a greater share of men are sexless both among wedders and nonwedders, also based on GSS and other data,[14] and also much later marriage. The IFS also found sexlessness is on the rise overall. Indeed, between 1990-2006 in GSS, only 13.4% of men aged 18-30 had no sex in the past year (N = 2013, 95% CI: 11.9%, 14.9%), but in 2012-2018 it was 20.8% (N = 682, 95% CI: 17.7%, 23.8%), which is a significant change (z = 4.6, p < .00001). For women it was 11.5% (2489, 95% CI: 10.3%, 12.8%) and 14.5% (742, 95% CI: 12.0%, 17.0%), which is also a significant change (z = 2.2, p < .03).[15] Men experienced a larger decline (-7% vs -3%), though, which agrees with other findings that sex has become more unequally distributed for both sexes, with the most sexually active men getting more sex than ever.

The tendency that men are more likely sexless can be observed across the world as summarized below and also in terms of reproductive success,[16] and is likely a result of women's higher parental investment.

Conclusion: Young people generally have less sex and men even less. Also few people have more sex at the same time, without resulting in a net increase though. But the largest changes are less stable relationships and later marriage.

Earlier estimates[edit | edit source]

Brian Gilmartin in the 1980s estimated that 1.5% of all American men experience involuntary celibacy, estimating them at 4.7 million people.[17] A 2012 report by The Centers for Disease Control claimed that within the past year roughly 6% of men ages 25 to 44 have not had any sexual partners. The Washington Post correlated this figure within inceldom; thus making roughly 6% of that age group virginal involuntary celibates (per Washington Post).[18] This graph from Lyman Stone of the Institute for Family Studies that shows that male 12-month celibacy between the ages of 22-35 grew to around 14% of young men as of 2016.[19]

Commentary[edit | edit source]

Sexual frustration is a majoritarian issue[edit | edit source]

With increasing sexlessness and steady partnerships almost cut in half for those between 18-35, one can see that inceldom issues are approaching a majoritarian issue. With 51% of young adults without a partner could indicate that the amount of people sympathetic to incels due to their own situation may now be a majority of young adults.

Sexlessness is worse for men[edit | edit source]

See also: Adverse effects of inceldom

In addition to the greater prevalence of male inceldom, men may face more negative consequences, e.g. because they have a higher sex drive. Also, in one study, male students had sex gained social status, whereas female students lost peer popularity the more sex they had.[20] Also, women find men who have sex more attractive.[21]

Some findings suggest single men are more prone to depressive symptoms, but other findings suggest that poor mating performance is related with equally lower well-being for both sexes (see adverse effects of inceldom). Yet, the difference in libido and coyness should imply that women, but not men, can get sex easily if they wanted. Women exhibit also more childish neuroticism overall which should maybe not be taken as seriously as men's suffering and isolation.

Some feminists have claimed the comparison in acceptance to invitations to sex is not a fair measure of how much women suffer from sexlessness because women need to know the men first to be safe. However, there is evidence that women do engage in very adventurous sex with no hope for reciprocity or investment on part of the man, namely if the man has exceptionally high status[22] and/or is exceptionally good looking (sexy sons hypothesis) and even abusive/violent men (hybristophilia). Van Halen had sex tents set up at his performances.[23] This proves women do engage sometimes in adventurous, unsafe sex, therefore most femlcels are believed to be volcels. Feminists have a point in that women have more parental investment, but phenomena like sex tents and sexy sons suggest women exploit their ability to choose from many men somewhat, so their inceldom seems more self-inflicted. Women are naturally oblivious to these facts.

Women decide over celibacy rates[edit | edit source]

See also: Briffault's law and Hypergamy

Cohen and Shotland (1996) found a correlation between when people thought sex should start in a given relationship and when they actually began having sex, which was low for men (r = .19, n.s.), but very high for women (r = .88, p < .01), meaning only women decide when sex occurs.[24]

Further, in a 1989 peer-reviewed study that took place at Florida State University, 75% of men accepted random sex-invitations from random real-life women, whereas 0% of women accepted such offers.[25] This combats the notion that men have choice in casual sex matters when they are not high-status, due to 0% of women accepting random-sex no-strings offers in a setting high in casual sex. That men have no choice in casual sex matters also makes overall celibacy rates seem to be mostly a product of women's choices than mens. The Florida study also showed both genders accept dates at a similar rate. That more women accept dates rather than direct-sex invitations suggest they use dates as a vetting mechanism, whereas men less so.

There have been attempts to replicate this study in practice or theory, however all appear to have been non-naturalistic studies, unlike Hatfield and Clark, making them ultimately not interesting. They also vary in conclusions. There is agreement with Hatfield and Clark,[26] while others point out the original study was about low-information sex invitations, or invitations where the man only disclosed they were human, or, "children of God", so to speak. IE they also hypothesize women will only accept casual sex invitations after vetting the social status or "sexual skill" of men, whereas men accept regardless, making women ultimately the sexual selectors. Baumeister summarized on the sex difference in sex drive: "Given the mismatch between men's and women's desires, most men are doomed to experience chronic sexual frustration. […] They are doomed to be horny."[27] These results strongly imply women are the gatekeepers of sex[28] and hence decide over celibacy rates.

Other countries[edit | edit source]

Australia[edit | edit source]

The highest number of adult virgins over the age of 31 (male and female combined) was found in Melbourne with almost 4% virgins.[29]

China[edit | edit source]

China (as well as India) have some of the largest surplus of males and hence a huge number of male incels which is thought to even aggravate in the coming decades and is thought to become a substantial threat to social stability.[30] There are now an excess of 70 million males in China and India.[31] The Washington Post produced an article with impressive visualizations of the problem.[32]

Finland[edit | edit source]

In Finland, rates of sexlessness and masturbation have substantially increased in recent years, affecting especially men aged 30-40.[33] Further, the number of young men having more than two sex partners decreased for men, but remained stable for women (see figure on the right). For more figures and discussion of the study, see the scientific blackpill[34] and this forum thread.[35]

Germany[edit | edit source]

In Germany, incels are called Absolute Beginners, or ABs. There are no comparable data to the GSS or NFSG with variables about virginity. Some sources claim inceldom affects twice as many males as females with 10 percent and 5 percent respectively, however the exact source of this claim is unknown.[citation needed][36] Older data from 2008 suggested that among 18-30 year olds, 60.4% of men and 35.6% of women were singles.[37] Interestingly, these figures from 2008 are similar to GSS in 2018 as discussed above. Even though men might bloom later, this points to substantial gynocentrism in that women in their twenties have their sexual basic needs more likely met. A survey showed that the rate of sexless women aged 18-91 increased from 33% to 38% between 2005 and 2016, which likely means it has increased by at least a much for males, and may veil a substantial increase for the younger generations due the broad age range of the sample.[38]

A survey from 2008 by „Neon“ estimated the number of ABs aged 20-35 to be 4% of women and 6% of men.[39] Much higher numbers than this were found for student ABs in 1996. Among students groups aged 18-30, 7.5% of women but 13.7% of men never had sex. Among ages 28-30, 8.4% of men never had sex, but only 2% of women (p = 0.003).[40] In 2000, sex researcher Kurt Starke found 10% of male university students under 29 were virgins ("Absolute Beginners"). Psychotherapist Poschenrieder claims to have received roughly 150 counseling requests from Absolute Beginners.[41] Some sex researchers have claimed that Absolute Beginners are not rare,[42] and sex columnist Caroline Fux said that AB's are common.[43][44]

The emergence of ABs has been blamed on various factors including a skewed sex ratio, such as a surplus of women or a surplus of men in particular regions.[45] According to Jakob Pastötter, President of the German Society for Social Science Research, the phenomenon of the Absolute Beginner is a bit more prevalent among those with demisexuality (a sexual orientation characterized by only experiencing sexual attraction after making a strong emotional connection with a specific person), i.e. people with a slow life history.[46] In 2017, sex consultant Sarah Nerb claimed 2-3% of adults in Germany are Absolute Beginners.[47]

ABs come from a wide range of professional backgrounds,[48] and they vary in their physical appearance (ABs are not only physically ugly people)[49][50] which may serve as some anecdotal evidence against the notion that inceldom is primarily caused by lookism, but these claims remain somewhat dubious as it could have been selection bias of the sort that only good looking people seek help from female sex therapists and are inclined to participate in a TV show.

India[edit | edit source]

Due to a surplus of young men they suffer higher rates of inceldom than women. Whereas as women usually lose their virginity during their teens, men are more likely to lose it in their twenties. Statistics also show that the rates of inceldom for men are higher in the south of India than the north.[51] Men in India have the least sex of all countries.[52]

Japan[edit | edit source]

Japan has among the highest rates of incels and has had them for quite a while. At of 2019, 10% of 30 year olds have no sexual experience. 24.6% of 18-39 year old women have no heterosexual experience, up from 21.7% in 1992. For men it increased from 20% to 25.8%. Sex differences are remarkably small.[53] In 2016, a government survey found evidence of 541,000 hikikomori living in a country of 127 million people.[54]

Netherlands[edit | edit source]

In a survey from 2017, among 25-39 year olds, 8% (N = 427) of men but only 4% (N = 687) of women never had sex which is significantly different (Chi² = 8.053, p = 0.0045). Among 18-24 year olds, it was 25% (N = 4934) of men and 19% (N = 8216) of women, also significantly different (Chi² = 66.3, p < 0.0001).[55]

Norway[edit | edit source]

One Norwegian study showed "the proportion of childless men (at age 40 years) has increased rapidly for Norwegian male cohorts from 1940 to 1970 (from 15% to 25%). For women, it has only increased marginally (from 10% to 13%)." Personality traits have also become increasingly important for male fertility.[56] As in the other countries, the result points to a greater prevalence of male incels than female incels.

United Kingdom[edit | edit source]

The rate of U.K. incels has also risen considerably. Among 26-year-old millennials (born 1989-1990), i.e. in 2016, 12.5% had no sexual experience, but in previous generations it was only 5% at the same age.[57] In a survey by YouGov from 2019, around 18% of men said they had no close friends. Only 12% of women said the same.[58][59]

Demographics of the incelosphere[edit | edit source]

See also: Incel forums demographics[edit | edit source]

The currently largest incel forum conducted two surveys so far of its userbase. 59.5% of users were between 18-25 years old and few are younger. 22.5% have had sex. 56.1% were White/Caucasian.[60]

/r/braincels[edit | edit source]

In agreement with the result above, around 55% of incels on /r/braincels were Caucasian.[61]

See Also[edit | edit source]

References[edit | edit source]

  10. This reasoning has, of course, various limitations. For one, singles who reported to prefer their singlehood in Poortman & Liebroer could be having casual sex otherwise. Also, men who see prostitutes have sex, but may still count as incels. Conversely, men in long-distance relationships, religious men or very career-focused men might voluntarily forgo sex, hence might rather count as volcels or temporarycels. On the other hand, one could question whether systemic circumstances pressure men into these situations, which could then count as involuntary. Today, people might involuntarily marry much later as a consequence of cultural, economic and environmentalist pressures forcing them to do so. Indeed, career-focused singles tend to report they focus on their career because they are single rather than vice-versa (Source:
  16. Brown, G.R., Laland, K.N. and Mulder, M.B. 2009. Bateman's principles and human sex roles. [FullText]
  27. Baumeister & Tice, 2001
  45. Heiratsmarkt und Marriage Squeeze. Analysen zur Veränderung von Heiratsgelegenheiten in der Bundesrepublik, Universität Heidelberg, Abgerufen am 1, September 2014
  50. Monika Büchner: Für die Liebe ist es nie zu spät: Absolute Beginner – wenn Sie das erste Mal noch vor sich haben. J. Kamphausen, Bielefeld 2016, S. 30, S. 47.



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