COVID-19 is the disease caused by a novel Chinese coronavirus with the scary name SARS-CoV-2. In almost all US states, the disease has claimed about as many lives as the flu, almost no lives below age 30, and has killed dramatically less people than pneumonia without COVID-19. Danish blood donors suggest the virus is not overall more deadly than the flu, but this is debated. Random blood sampling in California show an infection mortality rate between 0.01% (Los Angeles) and 0.1% (Santa Clara County). If NYC death stats are accurate, the coronavirus may have infected up to 50% of the population there.
Similarly to seasonal influenza, 98% of fatal cases have a serious underlying condition and most are very old. Nonetheless, the global outbreak in early 2020 sparked mass hysteria, irrational violence, government overreach, mass surveillance, hypochondria, temporary food, toilet paper and hand sanitizer shortages, rationing including bread lines in capitalist countries, mass unemployment, terrorism charges against those purposefully spreading saliva in public, hospital crowding, a stock market collapse and other severe economic damages caused by lockdowns.
Faced with a fractional increase in natural death probability, boomer country leaders advised all millennials to speedrun video games at home indefinitely. This gave millions of normies the unique chance to experience incel, NEET and LDAR lifestyles, causing especially young women to be socially isolated for the first time in their lives, driving some into suicide.
Coronabucks[edit | edit source]
'Disaster' relief and Keynesian government stimulus measures were put into place to keep up aggregate consumer demand for goods and services. Incels in many economic situations and homeless NEETs around the world were guaranteed anywhere from 1k-8k USD equivalent from a government body, with a low bar for assistance, and plenty of time to file. Notable heroes in this story include Hong Kong Finance minister Paul Chan Mo-po and Hollywood producer and US Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin.
The dollars were termed 'coronabucks' or 'neetbux' on incel and NEET forums. For many incels/NEETs this cash distribution is the most generous thing anyone did for them and it gives many a positive picture of the political environment. Travel and brick-and-mortar store workers were those who needed the most immediate contextual assistance. Those in families employed in healthcare technology or finance likely saw little to no actual new danger in their lives, and probably only a net benefit.
Housed NEET oppression[edit | edit source]
Many non-homeless NEETs were denied cash relief due to congress deciding to not directly give assistance to those filing their taxes as a dependent. A dependent to the IRS meaning someone who lives with someone who pays most of their living expenses. Thus, those non-homeless NEETs who were "true" non-homeless NEETs and did not pay for more than half their living expenses, were denied direct cash relief. This arguably sparks resentment between dependents and parents, and makes the dependent more dependent on their caretaker. Mnuchin may be blamed by those effected for proposing relief for "hard working Americans".
Overreaction[edit | edit source]
Much of the western world shut down in March 2020, in many countries involving draconian measures.
A number of primarily female celebrities who probably have not or cannot get ill from the virus have sought to capitalize off the hype. This includes Kathie Griffith (who allegedly was admitted to a special COVID-19 isolation ward despite not actually having the disease, see pic on right), Greta Thunberg, and Tessa Violet.
About half the early deaths in Iran were due to people drinking alcohol to 'clean out their body' of the virus. A number of high-profile politicians have gotten infected due to their extensive travel, but the vast majority show little to no symptoms, with the exception of British PM Boris Johnson, an obese and unhealthy 55 year old who went out of his way to infect himself by shaking hands with sick patients at hospitals.
Ukraine broke out into mass violence even when there was not a single confirmed case. A number of accelerationists, journalists, and fascists have obvious excitement over the virus sparking continued unrest in democratic countries and seek to incite further panic. Businesses affiliated with government bodies such as Co-Diagnostic Inc and Inovio Pharmaceuticals seek to gain massively monetarily from the panic. Inovio stock jumped 12% upon announcement of them developing a vaccine and Co-Diagnostic Inc doubled in value.
Epidemiologists and academics have status incentives to give overblown projections and not dial them down. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (out of the University of Washington) model for Coronavirus cases became a national standard, even cited by the Trump administration as proof of an extended lockdown. By the end of March that model was over 4x overblown for New York for example, and had expected 50k hospitalizations instead of the 12k that actually happened. Such overblown predictions point a political strategy that allows to conveniently claim early victory over the situation.
Fatality rate[edit | edit source]
Some of the best data sources for the infected fatality rate (IFR) comes from the boomer cruise ship Diamond Princess. Out of 3,711 passengers with an average age of 60, about 20% (712) tested positive. Only 25% of the positive cases had symptoms of a pneumonia and 1.7% (12) died. This suggests, without an overwhelmed health system, the IFR for the overall population may be between 0.025% to 0.5%. Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%. But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people, as obesity is the second most common risk factor after age. This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu, and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu. Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the virus caused overwhelmed hospitals in various places. Only randomized serology tests would produce an accurate IFR. In Denmark, randomized testing was done in Danish blood donors, showing a total IFR of 0.16%. Meaning the virus is less deadly than the flu assuming those who donate blood represent a random sample of the Danish population. Random blood tests of Santa Cara County Ca residents show a 0.1% fatality rate, and random blood tests of Los Angeles residents show a 0.01% fatality rate.
In Italy, the average fatality age was 81. More than 99% of deaths were older than 50 and 99% had an existing underlying condition. Half of the fatalities had three or more chronic diseases, so more than half of the fatal cases would presumably have died in the next few years anyhow. Further, despite extremely overwhelmed hospitals, there were close to zero fatalities younger than 30, different from the Spanish Flu. Healthy people younger than 65 only accounted for 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. In addition, Italy has a history of overwhelmed hospitals during flu season, e.g. in 2017/2018, Italian hospitals delayed surgery and rationed care due to the flu.
Much of the media scare arose from so called preliminary "case fatality rates" which only consider the number of deaths among those who tested positive, i.e. who are known "cases". This inflates the numbers based on how extensively people are tested as mild cases go unnoticed when the limited number of test kits are used for severe cases and deaths first. For example, end of March in Italy, the CFR was at a whooping 10% because little testing was done. In countries with more extensive testing such as South Korea, the CFR was only 1.51%, closer to the CFR to be expected. CFRs are not settled until extensive and randomized serology tests are done, resulting in lower figures due to testing more healthy and young people who do not seek treatment.
There have also been sensational reports of fatalities among infected health workers, however these cases are rare (CFR 0.3%), and primarily affect elderly health workers, with e.g. a median age of 69 and youngest age 50 in Italy among physicians.
Infecting everyone instead of lockdown[edit | edit source]
The Netherlands finds infecting 60% of it's citizens as preferable to waiting 2 years for a dubious vaccine.
Dan Yamin, who tracks influenza transmission, thinks Sweden/Netherlands are right about avoiding lockdowns. He said this about Coronavirus social distancing.
“”We won’t be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable.
Sweden seems mostly unconcerned about unsubstantiated fearmongering about infection rate and the mortality rate among the healthy population and is only limiting very large gatherings and telling people over 70 to stay at home.
Boomers vs the economy[edit | edit source]
The low fatality rate of the virus raises the interesting ethical question whether one should care at all. Japan and Sweden seem to be some of the few countries that only take very mild measures (but also contact tracing and recommendations etc.). Even if a full outbreak equals perhaps 10 flu seasons at once, one could ask why aren't we also doing lockdowns to prevent the next 10 years of flu seasons? Joe Biden's coronavirus adviser in fact does not want to get older than 75 anyhow. The economic damages might eventually prove just as severe as the death toll due to the virus. One reason to care could be that overwhelmed health system would cause additional deaths, or that even mild cases of the disease may cause unforeseen long-term damages.
Why the overreaction?[edit | edit source]
The overreaction presumably mainly occurred due to boomers trying to save their asses as they have by far the highest fatality rates and own most media outlets. The stock market collapse may have been a coincidental, accelerating element in the hysteria as its collapse was long overdue, it having been the largest bull market in history.
Almost everyone can find a reason to anticipate a lock down. Environmentalists anticipate the decline in pollution and get to impose a low-consumption lifestyle. Socialists, neoliberals, and ancaps get to experiment with basic income. Wagies get some time off. Boomers get to defer their death. Rightists get their closed borders and can demonstrate authoritarianism. Anti-globalists can exert pressure on globalists. Leftists can virtue signal about saving lives. Sex-havers get excited about quarantine sex; in particular men are relieved from mate guarding in times women are free to be sluts. The media get a spectacle.
Respected doctors and academics calling out hysteria[edit | edit source]
A number of doctors have come out against the shutdown of public life, or who say World Health Organization are overestimating the threat in an unhealthy way. They see themselves as providing a more evidence based analysis of the situation and generally recommend basic flu prevention tactics to the public, rather than anything else. The list is being compiled by off-guardian.org and Swiss Propaganda Research. The doctors include:
- Dr. Sunetra Gupta et al., an Oxford-based research team
- Dr Karin Mölling, an award winning researcher and virologist
- Dr Anders Tegnell, a Swedish physician and civil servant who has been State Epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden since 2013, and Dr Anders Tegnellm a Swedish physician and civil servant who has been State Epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden since 2013
- Dr Pablo Goldschmidt, an Argentine-French virologist specializing in tropical diseases, and Professor of Molecular Pharmacology at the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris
- Dr Eran Bendavid and Dr Jay Bhattacharya, professors of medicine and public health at Stanford University.
- Dr Tom Jefferson, a British epidemiologist, based in Rome
- Dr Michael Levitt, Professor of biochemistry at Stanford University
- Dr Richard Schabas, the former Chief Medical Officer of Ontario, Medical Officer of Hastings and Prince Edward Public Health and Chief of Staff at York Central Hospital
- Dr Sucharit Bhakdi, a specialist in microbiology, head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists in German history.
- Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a German physician specialising in Pulmonology, politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. He called out conflicts of interest during the Swine Flu outbreak
- Dr Joel Kettner, professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University
- Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. Director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). Also an editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation.
- Dr Yoram Lass, an Israeli physician, politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry
- Frank Ulrich Montgomery, German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association
- Prof. Hendrik Streeck, German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist
- Dr. David Katzm, an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center
- Michael T. Osterholm, a regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
- Dr Peter Goetzsche, Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration
References[edit | edit source]