Talk:COVID-19

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0.5%[edit source]

Thank you for sourcing the section and including IFR/CFR distintion. I don't understand where 0.5% (rather than 0.05% etc) comes from that Reddit thread and Forbes article, perhaps you can explain it in the text.William (talk) 23:05, 28 March 2020 (UTC)

It was in that other article I referenced: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ Based on Diamond Princess they estimated the IFR at 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2-1.2%). Other estimates have been 0.66% (0.39%,1.33%), and IFR of 0.9% (0.4%, 1.4%), but it is likely a bit lower. Not much though. Claims of IFR of 0.05% do not square with data from South Korea. The estimate from Iceland is bad as Iceland is somewhat late in the pandemic; they will see more deaths in the weeks to come as the average duration from onset of symptoms to death is three weeks on average (2-8 weeks).
Was the final Diamond-based IFR adjusted to the age and health of the US or another major country? I'm too lazy to figure that out. Because if not, it's not too interesting as a conclusion. Also afaik, the extensive testing done in S. Korea were on people worried about existing COVID-like symptoms, not a true population test. William (talk) 00:29, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

Article is overly confident in declaring everything an overreaction[edit source]

China and Italy are both very advanced countries. In top of that, China is very authoritarian and won't care for hypochondriacs much. They re-educate Muslims in camps and their economy has maximal priority, ffs. Hospitals also know how to deal with hypochondrics very well. While there is a chance that many current measures are overreactions, people are clearly dying at a abnormal and exponential rate. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/images/ILI12_small.gif

It mainly affects the elderly though, mainly people who would die anyhow, so it is really an ethical question whether delaying these fatalities by a few years is worth shutting down the economy.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Note, Ferguson did not say it is a nothingburger. He said contact tracing is sufficient for preventing ICU overload, rather full lock down. But even that is dubious according to some. --unsigned comment by Bibipi

ICU overload was already happening in Italy in prior years due to... the flu. It's the job of people saying the world is going to end to prove it given the measures being proposed. Hypochondriacs are creating the hospital difficulties, over 90% of those who think they have the illness do not have it according to S. Korea stats, and everyone seriously ill who thinks they have it is going to the ER and asking to get put in a Corona unit, beefing up stats and hysteria. No one should be shutting down public life with a virus that hits old people with an estimated mortality rate less than 1% without extensive randomized serology tests imo William (talk) 00:20, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
If hospitals are short staffed for the flu in some countries, and CFR is high in ICU stats, that does not mean everyone even has to social distance William (talk) 00:22, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
If we want to save what will probably be at most a few million 70+ year old lives globally, then a few countries will need to go full commie. But no one outside Nordic countries will do that so it's a choice btw a few million lives globally at most and a global depression, I know which one I prefer.William (talk) 00:25, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
The Province of Bergamo has ~4500 more deaths since February than in the last years which is around 0.4% of the population,[1] so an IFR below 0.5% is unlikely at this point as not everyone was infected, but it will vary somewhat depending on the amount of old people. This is around 5-10 flu seasons at once, it seems. Bibipi (talk) 00:06, 9 April 2020 (UTC)
In Italy they lump everyone infected with COVID-19 as a COVID-19 death. But your NYC statistics were interesting. They don't reflect the rest of the country but it clearly shows it is worse than the flu for NYC at least. And as far as IFR rates that's hard to pull from raw death statistics.William (talk) 16:49, 13 April 2020 (UTC)
Don't think COVID-19 deaths are overcounted in Italy, though ways of counting do differ between countries https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fokxqz/italy_only_12_of_covid19_deaths_list_covid19_as Rather the death toll is likely higher: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/italy-coronavirus-deaths-likely-much-higher/ though the 4500 figure above already includes those additional deaths Bibipi (talk) 19:08, 13 April 2020 (UTC)

R0 is oversstated[edit source]

Due to underdetection of early cases, and is there a recent primary source for R0? using "possibly" and then making a conclusion is fearmongering.William (talk) 00:59, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

"Additionally, the researchers used a sensitivity analysis to project how the R0 and behavior of the outbreak would change if the baseline number of cases was underestimated (by 50% or 100%). Spoiler alert: the R0 is lower and the number of infections similarly reduced."

https://triplebyte.com/blog/modeling-infectious-diseases

Diamond Cruise ship showed transmission similar to the flu https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate William (talk) 01:21, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

That non-reviewed paper you have cited with a CFR of 0.05% actually assumes an R0 of 5.2 which is way higher than the R0 on the Diamond Princess (around 2-3, despite the crowded setting, that is), and also contradicts what you are quoting here and other data. It would require a very high rate of false negatives on the DP (dunno if plausible), so the data are still way more uncertain than you are presenting it. Hospitalization durations are also around 2x longer than the regular flu (unless they took extra testing precautions which delayed the release). So it's definitely not much worse than the common flu, but estimates that suggest it is just another flu seem to be outliers. Bibipi (talk) 12:46, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

Disease vs hypochondriacs[edit source]

You word it in a way that implies genuinely serious cases of the disease overfills ICUs due primarily or secondarily to the virus in countries that did not have overfilled ICUs in years past. I don't see evidence for that. I do see anecdotal evidence of mass hysteria and overinflated r0. William (talk) 01:44, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

Possible stocks will completely recover[edit source]

if Trump opens business back up *soon*William (talk) 23:05, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

Nice paragraph u wrote Bibipi[edit source]

Almost everyone can find a reason to anticipate a lock down. Environmentalist anticipate the decline in pollution and get to impose a low-consumption lifestyle. Socialists, neoliberals, and ancaps get to experiment with basic income. Wagies get some time off. Boomers get to defer their death. Rightists get their closed borders closed and can demonstrate authoritarianism. Anti-globalists can exert pressure on globalists. Leftists can virtue signal about saving lives. The media get a spectacle.

William (talk) 23:41, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

Thanks. Bibipi (talk) 12:02, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
What about the part about leftists wanting to blame Trump for not locking everything down in January? 2601:5CD:C200:9BE0:46C:DB3E:8F88:5474 12:12, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
fuckin leftistsWilliam (talk) 20:40, 31 March 2020 (UTC)

Sweden has apparently decided to let the virus spread as much as possible[edit source]

so that they can kill off their boomer population before it drives their generous social services systems broke. 2601:5CD:C200:9BE0:71E3:A49A:E4B9:CF63 20:18, 1 April 2020 (UTC)

Every other non-communist or non-technocratic country is doing the same, just in slow motion. Also it would not necessarily bankrupt their social services in any case.William (talk) 12:26, 13 April 2020 (UTC)


High all cause boomer mortality in NY may be due to hospital crowding combined with wrong treatment[edit source]

If you just leave people on ventilators and run from room to room you aren't going to be able to see or monitor all patients appropriately, especially if the ventilators aren't doing anything

People in NYC might be dying "of COVID-19" more than the flu for reasons that haven't been discussed. There has been reports that peoples symptoms aren't ARS but micro-thrombosis and that ventilator aren't helping and that antibiotics to modulate immune system response is the way to go (+ ev. Anti-inflammatory)William (talk) 15:48, 14 April 2020 (UTC)

And even if current treatment for those otherwise very sick, is actually benefiting the patient, which is dubious, an overwheled healthcare system from hypochondriacs would make all-cause mortality rise regardless, I bet any hypochondriac with a cough is going and by law they can't turn them away. William (talk) 16:41, 14 April 2020 (UTC)

Stanford random serology test results[edit source]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=185&v=jGUgrEfSgaU William (talk) 13:59, 22 April 2020 (UTC)

shows 0.1% fatality rate

https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/21/los-angeles-study-backs-stanford-researchers-conclusion-about-high-prevalence-of-covid-19 William (talk) 20:53, 23 April 2020 (UTC)

NY all cause death increase explanation[edit source]

": People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections. Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability."

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation William (talk) 19:02, 23 April 2020 (UTC)

Los Angeles random serology test results[edit source]

Shows ~0.01% fatality rate. https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/21/los-angeles-study-backs-stanford-researchers-conclusion-about-high-prevalence-of-covid-19 William (talk) 20:52, 23 April 2020 (UTC)

Indefinite measures[edit source]

Now people are calling for indefinite measures jflWilliam (talk) 20:20, 8 July 2020 (UTC)