Trusted, Automoderated users
17,538
edits
COVID-19: Difference between revisions
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
→Fatality rate
| Line 43: | Line 43: | ||
This suggests an IFR for the overall population of around 0.5%.<ref name="basedsite">https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> | This suggests an IFR for the overall population of around 0.5%.<ref name="basedsite">https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> | ||
Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref> But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref><ref>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22831</ref> | Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref> But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref><ref>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22831</ref> | ||
This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu,<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu.<ref>https://archive.is/js5bL</ref> Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the | This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu,<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu.<ref>https://archive.is/js5bL</ref> Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the virus caused overwhelmed hospitals in various places. | ||
In Italy, the average fatality age was 81. More than 99% of deaths were older than 50 and 99% had an existing underlying condition.<ref name="baseditaly">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf</ref> Half of the fatalities had three or more chronic diseases,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref> so more than half of the fatal cases would presumably have died in the next few years anyhow. Further, despite extremely overwhelmed hospitals, there were close to ''zero'' fatalities younger than 30,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref><ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates</ref> different from the Spanish Flu.<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu</ref> | In Italy, the average fatality age was 81. More than 99% of deaths were older than 50 and 99% had an existing underlying condition.<ref name="baseditaly">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf</ref> Half of the fatalities had three or more chronic diseases,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref> so more than half of the fatal cases would presumably have died in the next few years anyhow. Further, despite extremely overwhelmed hospitals, there were close to ''zero'' fatalities younger than 30,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref><ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates</ref> different from the Spanish Flu.<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu</ref> | ||