COVID-19: Difference between revisions

Some of the best data sources for the infected fatality rate (IFR) comes from the [[boomer]] cruise ship Diamond Princess. Out of 3,711 passengers with an average age of 60, about 20% (712) tested positive. Only 11 died and 15 remain in a critical state. Around 25% of the positive cases had symptoms of a pneumonia.<ref name="basedthread">https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fno919/nonsevere_vs_severe_symptomatic_covid19_104_cases/</ref>

This suggests, without an overwhelmed health system, the IFR for the overall population may be between 0.025%<ref>https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/</ref> to 0.5%.<ref name="basedsite">https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref>

Extensive antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref>

This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and would mean that it overwhelms hospitals depending on the prevalence of old and fat people.

In Italy, the average fatality age was 81, more than 99% of deaths were older than 50 and 99% had an existing underlying condition.<ref name="baseditaly">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf</ref> Half of the fatalities had three or more chronic diseases,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref> so more than half of the fatal cases would presumably have died in the next few years anyhow. Further, despite extremely overwhelmed hospitals, there were close to ''zero'' fatalities younger than 30,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref><ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates</ref> different from the Spanish Flu.<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu</ref>