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Demographics of inceldom: Difference between revisions
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The 95% confidence interval for men who did not have sex in the past year aged 18-30 is 20%-34% (N = 137). Combining data from 2016 and 2018, one finds an estimate of 24% (N = 311, 95% CI: 19%, 29%). Most sexless males are likely incels as evidenced by: | The 95% confidence interval for men who did not have sex in the past year aged 18-30 is 20%-34% (N = 137). Combining data from 2016 and 2018, one finds an estimate of 24% (N = 311, 95% CI: 19%, 29%). Most sexless males are likely incels as evidenced by: | ||
*A study by Poortman and Liebroer that found that ''only roughly 4% of singles'' preferred their singlehood over being in a relationship.<ref>https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2010.03.012</ref> | * A study by Poortman and Liebroer that found that ''only roughly 4% of singles'' preferred their singlehood over being in a relationship.<ref>https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2010.03.012</ref> | ||
*Only 1% of the population self-identifies as asexual.<ref>https://health.usnews.com/health-news/health-wellness/articles/2015/05/04/asexuality-the-invisible-orientation</ref><ref name="asexuals">https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=17133744500922136515&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5</ref> | * Only 1% of the population self-identifies as asexual.<ref>https://health.usnews.com/health-news/health-wellness/articles/2015/05/04/asexuality-the-invisible-orientation</ref><ref name="asexuals">https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=17133744500922136515&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5</ref> | ||
*Sex is regarded as the most satisfying and joyous experience and ~70% of men report "sex is essential to feeling good about oneself".<ref name="ref25">https://incels.wiki/w/Scientific_Blackpill#Sex_is_the_most_pleasurable.2C_joyous.2C_and_meaningful_human_experience</ref> | * Sex is regarded as the most satisfying and joyous experience and ~70% of men report "sex is essential to feeling good about oneself".<ref name="ref25">https://incels.wiki/w/Scientific_Blackpill#Sex_is_the_most_pleasurable.2C_joyous.2C_and_meaningful_human_experience</ref> | ||
*Such reports are likely subject to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias social desirability bias], meaning men might not say they need sex to avoid violating [[sexual modesty]] norms and being perceived as shallow and sex-driven. | * Such reports are likely subject to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias social desirability bias], meaning men might not say they need sex to avoid violating [[sexual modesty]] norms and being perceived as shallow and sex-driven. | ||
*About half of adult virgins in their late 20s and early 30s report they do not feel attracted to the opposite sex, which counts as volceldom, however virginity is rare at this age, agreeing with the 1% figure for asexuals mentioned above.<ref name="haydon2013">Haydon, A. A., Cheng, M. M., Herring, A. H., McRee, A.-L., & Halpern, C. T. (2013). Prevalence and Predictors of Sexual Inexperience in Adulthood. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 43(2), 221–230. doi:10.1007/s10508-013-0164-3</ref> | * About half of adult virgins in their late 20s and early 30s report they do not feel attracted to the opposite sex, which counts as volceldom, however virginity is rare at this age, agreeing with the 1% figure for asexuals mentioned above.<ref name="haydon2013">Haydon, A. A., Cheng, M. M., Herring, A. H., McRee, A.-L., & Halpern, C. T. (2013). Prevalence and Predictors of Sexual Inexperience in Adulthood. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 43(2), 221–230. doi:10.1007/s10508-013-0164-3</ref> | ||
*Only 11% of university students are [[volcel]]s,<ref>https://archive.is/e7SM6</ref> even though university students tend to be slow life history strategists. | * Only 11% of university students are [[volcel]]s,<ref>https://archive.is/e7SM6</ref> even though university students tend to be slow life history strategists. | ||
* In a Greek cultural context, about half of adult singles are involuntary singles, but only 9.9-14.3% actually report being voluntary singles.<ref name="apostolou2019">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327420742_Are_People_Single_by_Choice_Involuntary_Singlehood_in_an_Evolutionary_Perspective</ref> | |||
* Voluntary singles could be having casual sex otherwise and men who see prostitutes have sex, but may still count as [[incel#definition|incels]]. | |||
* Long-distance relationships, or celibacy motivated by religion, career or [[environmentalism]] might be reported as [[volcel|volceldom]], but such systemic circumstances could in truth actually be involuntary. | |||
* Career-focused singles tend to report their singledom enables their career rather than their career causing their inceldom.<ref>https://www.springer.com/de/book/9783658059231</ref> | |||
Assuming some social desirability bias, | Assuming some social desirability bias, there were likely '''around 15% to 30% millennial male incels''' in 2018,<ref>This figure was computed by arbitrarily subtracting a volcel rate among the sexless of ~25% for the lower bound and ~15% for the upper bound of the 2018 confidence interval and then rounding to the next multiple of 5 to get nice figures.</ref> possibly more as of {{CURRENTYEAR}}, though around a third of this is 18-20 year olds. With 57 million millennial males, this amounts to 8-17 million male millennial incels, and two to three times as many in an unstable or no relationship, pointing to a substantial amount of sexually frustrated males. [[Menelaos Apostolou]] estimated that given about 30% of the adult population in the U.S. is single then, about 15% of the adult population is expected to be involuntary so.<ref name="apostolou2019"></ref> | ||
possibly more as of {{CURRENTYEAR}}, though around a third of this is 18-20 year olds. With 57 million millennial males, this amounts to 8-17 million male millennial incels, and | |||
===More sexless men than women=== | ===More sexless men than women=== | ||