COVID-19: Difference between revisions

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COVID-19 (edit)

Revision as of 19:39, 20 March 2021

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In Italy the early outbreak, the average fatality age was 81. More than 99% of deaths were older than 50 and 99% had an existing underlying condition.<ref name="baseditaly">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf</ref> Half of the fatalities had three or more chronic diseases,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref> so more than half of the fatal cases would presumably have died in the next few years anyhow. Further, despite extremely overwhelmed hospitals, there were close to ''zero'' fatalities younger than 30,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref><ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates</ref> different from the Spanish Flu.<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu</ref> Healthy people younger than 65 only accounted for 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref> In addition, Italy has a history of overwhelmed hospitals during flu season, e.g. in 2017/2018, Italian hospitals delayed surgery and rationed care due to the flu.<ref>https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml?refresh_ce-cp</ref>
In Italy the early outbreak, the average fatality age was 81. More than 99% of deaths were older than 50 and 99% had an existing underlying condition.<ref name="baseditaly">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf</ref> Half of the fatalities had three or more chronic diseases,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref> so more than half of the fatal cases would presumably have died in the next few years anyhow. Further, despite extremely overwhelmed hospitals, there were close to ''zero'' fatalities younger than 30,<ref name="baseditaly"></ref><ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates</ref> different from the Spanish Flu.<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu</ref> Healthy people younger than 65 only accounted for 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref> In addition, Italy has a history of overwhelmed hospitals during flu season, e.g. in 2017/2018, Italian hospitals delayed surgery and rationed care due to the flu.<ref>https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml?refresh_ce-cp</ref>
In countries with more extensive testing such as South Korea, the CFR was only 1.51%, closer to the CFR to be expected.<ref>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/</ref>
CFRs are not settled until extensive and randomized serology tests are done, resulting in lower figures due to testing more healthy and young people who do not seek treatment.<ref>https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/22/what-have-scientists-learned-from-using-cruise-ship-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#151d4f2406de</ref>
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Much of the media scare early in the pandemic arose from preliminary ''"case fatality rates"'' which only consider the number of deaths among those who tested positive, i.e. who are known "cases".
Much of the media scare early in the pandemic arose from preliminary ''"case fatality rates"'' which only consider the number of deaths among those who tested positive, i.e. who are known "cases".
This inflates the numbers based on how extensively people are tested as mild cases go unnoticed when the limited number of test kits are used for severe cases and deaths first.
This inflates the numbers based on how extensively people are tested as mild cases go unnoticed when the limited number of test kits are used for severe cases and deaths first.
For example, end of March in Italy, the CFR was at a whooping 10% because little testing was done.<ref>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/Italy</ref>
For example, end of March in Italy, the CFR was at a whooping 10% because little testing was done.<ref>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/Italy</ref>
In countries with more extensive testing such as South Korea, the CFR was only 1.51%, closer to the CFR to be expected.<ref>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/</ref>
Later on, the CFRs settled to about 2.2%.<ref>https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid</ref>
CFRs are not settled until extensive and randomized serology tests are done, resulting in lower figures due to testing more healthy and young people who do not seek treatment.<ref>https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/22/what-have-scientists-learned-from-using-cruise-ship-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#151d4f2406de</ref>  


There have also been sensational reports of fatalities among infected health workers, however these cases are rare (CFR 0.3%),<ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> and primarily affect elderly health workers, with e.g. a median age of 69 and youngest age 50 in Italy among physicians.<ref>https://portale.fnomceo.it/elenco-dei-medici-caduti-nel-corso-dellepidemia-di-covid-19/</ref>
There have also been sensational reports of fatalities among infected health workers, however these cases are rare (CFR 0.3%),<ref>https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> and primarily affect elderly health workers, with e.g. a median age of 69 and youngest age 50 in Italy among physicians.<ref>https://portale.fnomceo.it/elenco-dei-medici-caduti-nel-corso-dellepidemia-di-covid-19/</ref>


A meta study concluded that the IFR is very low for people younger than 55 (less than 0.2%).<ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1</ref>
A meta study concluded that the fatality rate per infection (IFR) is very low for people younger than 55 (less than 0.2%).<ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1</ref>
The hospitalized have a harsher and longer course of the disease compared to the flu, but not substantially.<ref>https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-85081-0</ref>
The hospitalized have a harsher and longer course of the disease compared to the flu, but not substantially.<ref>https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-85081-0</ref>
A study from France showed that the in-hospital mortality is only higher than the common flu for the elderly.<ref>https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext</ref>
A study from France showed that the in-hospital mortality is only higher than the common flu for the elderly.<ref>https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext</ref>
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