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Out of 3,711 passengers with an average age of 60, about 20% (712) tested positive. Only 25% of the positive cases had symptoms of a pneumonia and 1.7% (12) died.<ref name="basedthread">https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fno919/nonsevere_vs_severe_symptomatic_covid19_104_cases/</ref> | Out of 3,711 passengers with an average age of 60, about 20% (712) tested positive. Only 25% of the positive cases had symptoms of a pneumonia and 1.7% (12) died.<ref name="basedthread">https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fno919/nonsevere_vs_severe_symptomatic_covid19_104_cases/</ref> | ||
This suggests, without an overwhelmed health system, the IFR for the overall population may be between 0.025%<ref>https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/</ref> to 0.5%.<ref name="basedsite">https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> | This suggests, without an overwhelmed health system, the IFR for the overall population may be between 0.025%<ref>https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/</ref> to 0.5%.<ref name="basedsite">https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> | ||
Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref> But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref><ref>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22831</ref> | Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref> But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref><ref>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22831</ref>, as obesity is the second most common risk factor after age.<ref>https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-obesity-top-factor-after-age-driving-nyc-hospitalization-2020-4</ref> | ||
This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu,<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu.<ref>https://archive.is/js5bL</ref> Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the virus caused overwhelmed hospitals in various places. Only randomized serology tests would produce an accurate IFR. In Denmark, randomized testing was done in Danish blood donors, showing a total IFR of 0.16%. Meaning the virus is less deadly than the flu assuming those who donate blood represent a random sample of the Danish population.<ref>https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/doedelighed-skal-formentlig-taelles-i-promiller-danske-blodproever-kaster-nyt-lys</ref> | This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu,<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu.<ref>https://archive.is/js5bL</ref> Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the virus caused overwhelmed hospitals in various places. Only randomized serology tests would produce an accurate IFR. In Denmark, randomized testing was done in Danish blood donors, showing a total IFR of 0.16%. Meaning the virus is less deadly than the flu assuming those who donate blood represent a random sample of the Danish population.<ref>https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/doedelighed-skal-formentlig-taelles-i-promiller-danske-blodproever-kaster-nyt-lys</ref> | ||