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Some of the best data sources for the infected fatality rate (IFR) comes from the [[boomer]] cruise ship Diamond Princess. | Some of the best data sources for the infected fatality rate (IFR) comes from the [[boomer]] cruise ship Diamond Princess. | ||
Out of 3,711 passengers with an average age of 60, about 20% (712) tested positive. Only 25% of the positive cases had symptoms of a pneumonia and 1.7% (12) died.<ref name="basedthread">https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fno919/nonsevere_vs_severe_symptomatic_covid19_104_cases/</ref> | Out of 3,711 passengers with an average age of 60, about 20% (712) tested positive. Only 25% of the positive cases had symptoms of a pneumonia and 1.7% (12) died.<ref name="basedthread">https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fno919/nonsevere_vs_severe_symptomatic_covid19_104_cases/</ref> | ||
This suggests an IFR for the overall population | This suggests, without an overwhelmed health system, the IFR for the overall population may be between 0.025%<ref>https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/</ref> to 0.5%.<ref name="basedsite">https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/</ref> | ||
Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref> But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref><ref>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22831</ref> | Antibody testing in a German city found an IFR of 0.37%.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxp6ux/heinsberg_covid19_caseclusterstudy_initial_results/</ref> But the overall IFR will vary based on the prevalence of old and fat people.<ref>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1</ref><ref>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22831</ref> | ||
This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu,<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu.<ref>https://archive.is/js5bL</ref> Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the virus caused overwhelmed hospitals in various places. | This IFR would make the disease still several times as deadly as the common flu,<ref name="basedsite"></ref> and the course of disease is more severe with three times longer hospitalization than the flu.<ref>https://archive.is/js5bL</ref> Moreover, the disease is mild among the young and overall immunity is low, enabling quick spread. Together, this explains how the virus caused overwhelmed hospitals in various places. | ||